Would you do this again?

Let's just suppose Obama loses to McCain in November. We would then have to look toward 2012 and imagine what we would do then.

This has been the most rancorous, divisive, and irrationally spiteful primary of my political existence (the first one I participated in was 1976 so I do have some political memory).  Never have I seen the Democratic party so divided 6 months before a general election.

I do not feel the candidates or their campaigns deserve the primary blame for this turn of events.  The hostilities and blows coming from the candidates have been rather unremarkable by historical standards.  The primary blame for this state of affairs falls on the supporters themselves - both in the general public and in the media.

I have stated on numerous occasions here that the divisions in this party were not created by these candidates.  More likely, these candidates were just particularly strong magnets for certain factions and particularly strong repellents for other factions.  The facts that both candidate had such strong numbers of supporters and this primary contest went on so long served to harden the resolve of each camp's members.  Particularly in the latter stage of the primary, we have seen how support for each seemed impervious to current events or the campaign efforts of the other candidate.  

As you know, I have been a strong Hillary supporter.  Right now, in the event of an Obama loss, my natural preferences should lead me to support Senator Clinton again if she decided to run in 2012.  But, then I start thinking.  Do I want to do this again?  Do I want to risk this same fractiousness again?  Would I be better off choosing someone who is less of a magnet or a lightening rod?

Many on the Obama side might say, "Well, OK, those feelings might apply to her but not to him."  To those who would say that, I will tell you that I believe you are wrong.  All of these Clinton voters are not just voting "FOR" Clinton.  He has generated substantial opposition along the way.  Some of you might think that this would disappear if she were gone.  Some of it would, but much of it would not.

In my lifetime, a general election loss has killed the future presidential prospects of a Democratic nominee.  The last exception was Adlai Stevenson, but he was running against an unbeatable Eisenhower in 1956 and perhaps relatively few strong Democrats were all that eager to be the sacrificial lamb.  I'm not sure this conventional rule would apply to Obama.  Based on what I have seen this primary season, I think he could still generate strong primary support and emerge as one of the front runners after the early contests even if he did lose the GE in 2008.  I also think the same might apply to Clinton after losing this nomination if Obama loses the 2008 GE.

Let's suppose that is the 2012 set-up and both of these candidates again seek the nomination.  Would you be committed to YOUR (Notice I said, YOUR) candidate again?  Or, would you prefer to take a serious look at another alternative that might not generate the kinds of feelings we have seen in 2008?  

I would like to read your thoughts.  But, first let me be emphatic about what I don't want to read and what I believe has no place in this diary:

1) Scorn or snark about the OTHER candidate

2) Remarks like "Well, Obama isn't going to lose in 2008, so this diary is pointless."  

Responding to this diary requires that you step outside the partisan, never-give-an-inch soldier persona that you may have adopted throughout this season.  If you can't do that, skip this one.



Display:


Any rec's would be strongly appreciated (2.00 / 4)

My dear comrades!


by lombard on Sat May 24, 2008 at 01:42:15 PM EST

Re: Any rec's would be strongly appreciated (2.00 / 1)

The supporters of either candidate have frankly been more of a problem than either candidate has been.  We all rush to pick up the fallen standard, as it were.

Identity politics, to use a polite descripter, has driven us to new heights of self-delusion.  I do not now, nor have I ever, denigrated someone purely because they prefer another candidate or indeed another party.  My problem is, and has long been, intellectual dishonesty, and self-delusion.

We have to be able to call a spade a spade.  Far too many of us, the so-called "activist base" will allow our partisan blinders and personal loyalty define "reality" as we perceive it.  Most of this is not a conscious decision, which makes it all the more dangerous.

It's all about "my guy" or "my girl" or whatever tribalistic bullshit meme has taken hold this week, this day, this hour.

If we can't act like adults we will never accomplish much.


by Reaper0Bot0 on Sat May 24, 2008 at 01:46:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Agreed, but what about the original question? (none / 0)

Would you support Obama again without reservation in 2012 or would you somewhat hope that another viable alternative might emerge who may not divide people into the fervent intractable camps we've seen this year.


by lombard on Sat May 24, 2008 at 01:51:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Agreed, but what about the original question? (2.00 / 1)

If McCain wins, I hope neither Obama nor Clinton runs in 2012.


Can't rec or rate -- next username, please!
by neeborMolgula on Sat May 24, 2008 at 02:00:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Agreed, but what about the original question? (1.00 / 1)

Why would we talk about either candidate losing 2008? There is only one election in front of us that matters and that will be November 2008. For those Clinton supporters who think Obama is a weaker candidate, it won't matter when he is the candidate (unless you are hoping to be proved right by a loss). For those who can't support Obama in any way, shape, or form, do what you need to do. I'm not talking about 2012.


by batgirl71 on Sat May 24, 2008 at 02:36:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Agreed, but what about the original question? (2.00 / 1)

your post was all to close to "dems are hoping to be proved right in Iraq by us losing" type statements by the dumbaya WH. you might want to examine your own motives.


by zerosumgame on Sat May 24, 2008 at 03:59:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

You violated Rule #2 above (none / 0)

This is my diary.  I set the rules.  I explicitly said to avoid commenting if you can't stay inside the rules.  So, for the limited purpose of this diary, I consider you a troll of sorts.


by lombard on Sat May 24, 2008 at 04:02:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You violated Rule #2 above (none / 0)

I did not violate Rule #2. I did not state that Obama is not going to lose in 2008. And what, people can't comment on a diary that is defeatist at its core whether the candidate is Obama or Hillary? I seem to remember very clearly Jerome's rules. I don't remember Jerome saying diarits can come up with their own rules. I didn't break any of them so I recommend you take away your troll rating.

I think my ultimate sin was assuming that Obama would be the candidate. That's not partisan but hey I'll take that back. Or if that is partisan then your whole diary is partisan and therefore breaks your own rules.

Does anyone else think we should be talking about 2012 in the middle of the 2008 race?


by batgirl71 on Sat May 24, 2008 at 04:44:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I will not (none / 0)

The assumptions of the diary required the posters to express what they would do under a hypothetical scenario.  You violated the express requirement of rule #2.  I'm trying to have a structured discussion.  You are messing it up.  Others stayed within the parameters.  Apparently, you are one of those who 1) cannot stay within parameters or 2) cannot avoid demanding to play the game even while you refuse to obey the rules.


by lombard on Sat May 24, 2008 at 05:12:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

If I'm refusing to obey the rules, (none / 0)

then I learned from the best--Hillary Clinton.

Hide rate me away into oblivion.


by batgirl71 on Sat May 24, 2008 at 05:20:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Agreed, but what about the (2.00 / 1)

I'll reserve final judgment for until after I see how he handles the general election.  That being said, yes, I would support him in lieu of all others I can forsee at the moment.  I hate categorical language, you understand, but his message, his biography, his intellect, and above all his willingness to apply reason absolutely resonate with me.  It isn't just idealism.  I see him leading us in a way that is closer to what I've wanted all of my adult life than any other politician on my radar.

However, a loss in 2008 could well change him, could embitter him.  Would he cling to his idealism?  Could he dodge the slings and arrows of his erstwhile allies after dropping the battle standard?

I honestly don't know.  John Edwards gives us a modern example of the problem with this hypothetical (with, sincerely, all due respect Lombard).  You'll never get quite the same candidate, as their experiences, both in their loss and in what follows, will change them.

But yeah, one way or another I look forward to voting for Barack Obama in 2012.


by Reaper0Bot0 on Sat May 24, 2008 at 07:40:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

But, was Edwards really such a different candidate (none / 0)

in 2008 or was his problem that all of the air in the room was sucked in by the top 2?  I thought Edwards was similar to 2004, and had the advantage of being better known in 2008, but simply wasn't given enough attention by voters and media to thrive. Edwards simply lacked the large, natural constituencies of either of the front runners.  


by lombard on Sun May 25, 2008 at 02:51:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Would you do this again? (2.00 / 0)

I think divisions are just amplified due to the Internet. The divisions will also fade very quickly when this is settled in a couple weeks. I refuse to believe the small but vocal fringe online speaks for the bulk of either candidate.



Lost rate and rec for issuing a '1' to a trollish comment. The troll, not so much.

by map on Sat May 24, 2008 at 01:44:30 PM EST

Re: Would you do this again? (none / 0)

I agree.. the division and the rancor was there in 1980, but the internet was not.


McCain/Palin... even scarier than Bush/Cheney... and that's saying something!
by JenKinFLA on Sat May 24, 2008 at 01:50:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

They are amplified, but not caused, by the net (2.00 / 1)

But, they have existed before and had critical consequences (1952 & 56, 1968, 1972, 1980) long before the internet.

The medium of the internet allows more rancorous expression of division, but it is not the critical causal factor of the division.


by lombard on Sat May 24, 2008 at 01:54:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: They are amplified, but not caused, by the net (none / 0)

Agreed. I said the Internet amplified it, not that it caused it.  The plus side is that our attention span and memory isn't as long as it once was, so the division won't last.  For a few it will last a lifetime but that will be the exception.



Lost rate and rec for issuing a '1' to a trollish comment. The troll, not so much.

by map on Sat May 24, 2008 at 02:05:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

But, if they are more amplified and reinforced.. (none / 0)

..could it also be more likely that they could be even more durable?


by lombard on Sat May 24, 2008 at 02:26:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

More durable (none / 0)

Maybe for the few engaging in the online warfare.



Lost rate and rec for issuing a '1' to a trollish comment. The troll, not so much.

by map on Sat May 24, 2008 at 02:33:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

1952, 1956, 1968, 1972 and 1980 (none / 0)

These were all years when the playing field was terrible for Democrats regardless of divisions within the party.

1952
The outgoing Democratic President had approval ratings about where Bush's are now.

1956
There was a popular incumbent Republican running for re-election.

1968
The outgoing Democratic President had low approval ratings amidst an unpopular war.

1972
There was a popular incumbent Republican running for re-election.

1980
The economy was in the tank and the incumbent Democratic President running for re-election was unpopular.

It's absurd to say, "Oh, but for divisions the Democrats would have won in __ [fill in any of those years]"


by Collideascope on Sat May 24, 2008 at 03:41:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Thanks for pointing out my absurdity (none / 0)

The original assumption of this exercise was "what-if"  Obama loses in 2008.  

Try to restrain your impulses to shut down others.  I know old habits die hard.


by lombard on Sat May 24, 2008 at 04:11:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Would you do this again? (2.00 / 1)

I'd be down for supporting an Obama run in 2012, but only if Hillary wasn't running.

If Hillary was running, I'd probably back someone else....(not her, of course).  But I can't take much more of gender vs. race politics.


by Deadalus on Sat May 24, 2008 at 01:50:11 PM EST

The two of them again would be the worst combo (none / 0)

But I'm not sure that even if just one of them ran again, an automatically huge "anyone but" camp wouldn't develop.


by lombard on Sat May 24, 2008 at 02:18:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The two of them again would be the worst combo (none / 0)

Probably true


by Deadalus on Sat May 24, 2008 at 04:12:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Would you do this again? (none / 0)

Well, my first choice didn't make it to my state, so I had to pick someone else, and did end up volunteering for that campaign.

The one constant in this world is change (yes I know a loaded phrase these days), but my point the issues of 2012 will not be the same 2008, just like 2004 wasn't the same as 2000, etc.  And the world I have inherited is not the world my grandparents or parents did.  So I'm willing to listen to anyone who would think they have a good idea for where to go next, including third parties, not-crazy republicans, etc.  Please don't interpret that as a defection threat.

Looking back on 2004, I was never very excited about Kerry, I wasn't thrilled with any of them.  Dean was entertaining and enthusiastic, but not enough substance if my memory serves, Clark was intriguing because we haven't had a general on the Dem side that I remember, and I've never really felt the magic of John Edwards (I think I see it, I just don't feel it).  So this time around I was open to all who would put themselves out there, and I hope I'd have the same open mind in 2012 (god forbid it really comes to that).


by patooker on Sat May 24, 2008 at 01:53:13 PM EST

OK, but you danced around the question (none / 0)

The reasons 2004 didn't create the same kinds of feelings is that nobody really loved the front runner and those who did excite stronger feelings didn't generate sufficient numbers to challenge the front runner.  These candidates in 2004 are not the same in either respect.


by lombard on Sat May 24, 2008 at 02:00:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: OK, but you danced around the question (none / 0)

Sorry, I can be more direct. I was trying to say I'd first look seriously at the candidates I didn't know in 2008 and see if they gave me a reason to go elsewhere. Baring a figure I like more than my current choice I'd still cast the same vote, and volunteer as much as I have.

I was being more circumspect because my life has changed a lot in the last four years.  I've married, moved twice, enrolled in grad school, learned more about energy and the environment, learned more about the US economy, bought a house, etc.  And I would guess that in another 4 I'll have at least one child, a new job in a new place, my parents will be on the verge of retirement, etc. And that is just my life, the rest of the world will be going through its own changes.  So while my current choice seems like the right fit now, in four years they may be taking new positions I don't see as useful, or still falling back on old ones that no longer apply.

Gotta stay flexible and open to new ideas lest I become stuck in a single way of looking at things.


by patooker on Sat May 24, 2008 at 02:19:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Would you do this again? (2.00 / 1)

If Obama lost in 2008, I'd want neither Obama nor Clinton in 2012.


Beat McCain!
by thezzyzx on Sat May 24, 2008 at 01:54:22 PM EST

I'm coming around to your view (2.00 / 1)

A right winger said to me a couple of years ago, "Look, we'll put up no more Bush's if you put up no more Clintons.  Deal?"

I agreed with him then, but failed to keep my part of the  bargain this season!  Maybe the best thing in the event of an Obama loss would be for as many people on each side as possible decide that they are not going to support their candidate again.


by lombard on Sat May 24, 2008 at 01:58:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Would you do this again? (2.00 / 1)

If Mark Warner runs in 2012 , he gets my vote over Hillary Clinton.

If anyone runs that is more moderate/conservative he would probably get my vote over her .

Assuming she doesn't win this time and runs again .


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Sat May 24, 2008 at 01:55:40 PM EST

hard to say (2.00 / 2)

Neither Clinton nor Obama was my first or second choice.

A lot can happen in four years.  If the choice was down to Clinton and Obama again, and the political landscape was identical (doubtful), I'd support Obama again.

Unlike a lot of folks here, I feel like I can be an informed voter without having off the charts admiration and love for a candidate.  Likewise, I don't need to have a pathological hatred toward my candidate's opponent.

I really think there are a lot of posters on this board fulfilling strange emotional needs through the love and hatred of these two decent and flawed candidates.


by emptythreatsfarm on Sat May 24, 2008 at 01:58:48 PM EST

Re: Would you do this again? (2.00 / 1)

Depends who runs and what the situation is like. You put it in terms of "YOUR" candidate as if the person I voted for on 2/5 was the one I wanted all along. He wasn't. Your hypothetical is way too hypothetical. Too many things will have happened between now and then to know how I will respond. It's possible that Obama could conduct his GE campaign or his future Senate career in a way that disqualified him from consideration for my future support. Clinton has certainly done so late in this primary season.

I approach every primary season taking a serious look at the available options - usually ending up with one that drops out before I vote and then choosing between the remainders. Assuming the dems lose in 08, I don't know why 2012 would be any different for me.


by Mobar on Sat May 24, 2008 at 02:05:30 PM EST

That's a non-answer (none / 0)

Any argument about the future starts with hypothetical assumptions.  


by lombard on Sat May 24, 2008 at 02:22:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: That's a non-answer (none / 0)

Except for the part where I answered the question - it depends. Which is the only honest answer given how broad and free-wheeling your hypothetical was. Hypotheticals have to be narrowly tailored to have any use in moving a conversation forward.


by Mobar on Sat May 24, 2008 at 02:56:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

My thoughts are ... (none / 0)

that no matter who is elected in 2008, they will not be re-elected in 2012.

No, I don't want any of the current choices on the line then.

I feel there is so much wrong that no matter who is given the job as POTUS in 2008, there will be so much still wrong in 2012, that the POTUS will be the equivilant of Jimmy Carter.

No one can 'fix' the current energy crisis, the same for the economy, infrastructure and social issues.  A Democrat will most likely be able to stop the military action in Iraq, but terrorisim will still be a threat to us.  I hope that whoever wins understands that their 'laundry bag' of promises (and one in particular has made a boat load of them that I doubt he can even imagine how to address) will be opened and scrutinized by the American public often and closely.


Hell's bells, even the GOP didn't have to crucify Eisenhower's record in order to make Reagan their 'saint'. We can have two great ones, you know?
by emsprater on Sat May 24, 2008 at 02:10:18 PM EST

Re: My thoughts are ... (none / 0)

Come on.. don't be so negative.... good leadership can accomplish a lot.

Remember FDR and even Bill Clinton.. .they said clinton's tax increases would wreck the economy and look what happened


by CaptainMorgan on Sat May 24, 2008 at 02:14:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: My thoughts are ... (none / 0)

I would argue the tech boom of the 90s was a direct result of post-WWII and early Cold War spending that got the fundamental research done.  Neither Clinton nor Reagan deserve credit for cause of that boom.  Yes I've heard Republicans argue it took that long for Voodoo Economics to work.


by patooker on Sat May 24, 2008 at 02:32:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

If 2012 is that bad of a scenario (none / 0)

I certainly would agree with you that many will not be in the mood for any of the former choices.


by lombard on Sat May 24, 2008 at 02:15:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: My thoughts are ... (2.00 / 1)

The country was still in the pisser when FDR easily won reelection in 1936. The biggest problem with Carter was that he didn't inspire confidence. The country will stick with a leader during a rough-patch if they're satisfied with the quality of his or her leadership.


by RP McMurphy on Sat May 24, 2008 at 02:19:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: My thoughts are ... (none / 0)

My father as exposure to, not member of, a crowd that wants to see a Dem win now, so in 2012 when the mess isn't cleaned up they can turn around and destroy whomever it is like Carter and flip the legislature. I do believe that getting re-elected in 2012 will be tough, we've ignored problems for long enough that it will take more than 3 years to fix them all.  But progress can be made.

I do think the president directly has only a small effect on the economy, there are too many moving parts for one person to control them.  So odds are we won't be in the same slump in 2012, maybe a new one.


by patooker on Sat May 24, 2008 at 02:29:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: My thoughts are ... (2.00 / 1)

I tend to agree. Part of my love for Dean in 04 was he was the only one running who seemed to understand that following Bush would require a one-term president mentality. Assuming the Dem wins in 08, I think the path to re-election will involve ignoring a lot of the traditional and tempting ideas about being re-elected. Edwards was the only person in this primary who came close in my mind to realizing that. The approach I think we need involves operating a bulldozer and tearing down as much bad policy as quickly as possible and I think both Clinton and Obama are too cautious for that.


by Mobar on Sat May 24, 2008 at 02:52:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

OK, but who ever has a one-term mentality? (none / 0)

Other than the possibility of McCain because of his age.


by lombard on Sat May 24, 2008 at 03:01:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: OK, but who ever has a one-term mentality? (none / 0)

Are you suggesting my comment was too hypothetical?


by Mobar on Sat May 24, 2008 at 03:16:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Would you do this again? (none / 0)

No.

By 2012 I hope there's a Democrat on the scene who's better than either of them.


by Ed J on Sat May 24, 2008 at 02:15:44 PM EST

Re: Would you do this again? (none / 0)

We don't nominate past losers in the Democratic Party. If Obama loses, neither he nor Clinton will be the nominee in 2012 (although we'll probably have to put Clinton in a padded room to keep her from trying). SCHWEITZER '12!!!


by RP McMurphy on Sat May 24, 2008 at 02:16:05 PM EST

I don't get (know) the Schwietzer 12 reference? (none / 0)


by lombard on Sat May 24, 2008 at 02:20:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Brian Schweitzer (none / 0)

Governor of Montana


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Sat May 24, 2008 at 02:32:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I don't get (know) the Schwietzer 12 reference (none / 0)

If Obama loses this year, I'm supporting Brian Schweitzer (Governor of Montana) in 2012.


by RP McMurphy on Sat May 24, 2008 at 02:33:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Oh, I forgot about him. Thanks for the reminder! (none / 0)


by lombard on Sat May 24, 2008 at 02:36:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

yes (none / 0)

If Clinton were to lose this year and run in 2012 she would certainly be my first choice, largely because of what I think she has learned from this campaign.


by souvarine on Sat May 24, 2008 at 02:25:42 PM EST

Fair enough (none / 0)

But the same thing would undoubtedly apply to Obama if he ran again in 2012.  The challenge for either of them would be whether enough of the former opposition was willing to view them as significantly better than they were before.  


by lombard on Sat May 24, 2008 at 02:32:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Fair enough (none / 0)

Not likely. If Obama lost, I think he'd be wise enough not to run again. And if Clinton tried to run again, I would expect the ABC forces to coalesce around either Warner or Schweitzer and abort Rosemary's baby pronto.


by RP McMurphy on Sat May 24, 2008 at 03:01:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I agree but you violated one of my rules above (none / 0)

No snark or hate for the OTHER candidate.

"abort Rosemary's baby"  Was that really necessary?   Do you not have any restraining impulses left (or did you never have them in the first place)?


by lombard on Sat May 24, 2008 at 03:26:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I agree but you violated one of my rules above (1.00 / 1)

No snark or hate for the OTHER candidate.

This has nothing to do with the OTHER candidate, it has to do with a specific candidate: Hillary Clinton.

"abort Rosemary's baby"  Was that really necessary?   Do you not have any restraining impulses left (or did you never have them in the first place)?

Hahahaha. Well, let's see. This is a blog, you're all complete strangers, and as such, I'm going to state my honest opinion. And no, it has nothing to do with my undying love for Barack Obama. As a reasonable Democrat who fully expects to be supporting another candidate in four or (hopefully) eight years, I think that Senator Clinton's campaign has been a disgrace for the past three months. I know a lot of people agree with me, and though I don't think we need to have this particular debate at this particular moment,  I would fully expect to see an ABC (Anybody But Clinton) campaign arise in '12 (if it came to that). If my metaphor to that effect was a bit too colorful for your taste, I'm sorry.  


by RP McMurphy on Sat May 24, 2008 at 03:43:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Not on this diary, you don't (1.00 / 1)

I made that clear.  


by lombard on Sat May 24, 2008 at 03:56:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Not on this diary, you don't (none / 0)

Hahaha. Make my day, blogmarm.


by RP McMurphy on Sat May 24, 2008 at 04:11:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I will asswipe (2.00 / 1)

That was fun.  Why don't we keep going?


by lombard on Sat May 24, 2008 at 05:13:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Would you do this again? (2.00 / 1)

Do you not think it is as simple as this is the first primary since political blogs have come of age?  I suspect the average voter is blissfully unaware of 99% of the stuff discussed here.


by interestedbystander on Sat May 24, 2008 at 02:26:42 PM EST

I don't think that is true (none / 0)

Fractiousness isn't caused by the Internet and has existed throughout our political history.  There are plenty of people who have strong feelings for or against one (or both) of these candidates who never come to these places.


by lombard on Sat May 24, 2008 at 02:35:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I don't think that is true (none / 0)

Well, your question was about MY choice. I intentionally stayed away from the question of Obama. If Obama won the nomination but lost the general election I seriously doubt he would run again immediately, even Nixon skipped a cycle before trying again. It would take Obama a while to recover from losing in what was widely expected to be a Democratic year.

I'm more inclined to think Obama would win as nominee, if he can stop dividing the party.


by souvarine on Sat May 24, 2008 at 02:45:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I don't think that is true (none / 0)

Sorry, this was mean to be attached to your reply above.


by souvarine on Sat May 24, 2008 at 02:46:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

No I don't think so. (2.00 / 1)

I don't think I can get myself to support Clinton again ... not in the primaries anyways. Proved too polarizing and I just don't like surrogate drama.

I would be willing to give Obama a shot again but not in 2012, perhaps much later.

By 2012 I hope we can have other leaders.

This year is the single best chance for both of them.


by v2r1 on Sat May 24, 2008 at 02:38:27 PM EST

Interesting thoughts (1.00 / 1)

I might well be able to go for Obama later than 2102 but 2012 might present more psychological difficulty for me.


by lombard on Sat May 24, 2008 at 02:41:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Interesting thoughts (2.00 / 1)

You'll vote for him when he's running for reelection in 2012 though, right?



Lost rate and rec for issuing a '1' to a trollish comment. The troll, not so much.

by map on Sat May 24, 2008 at 02:46:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Interesting thoughts (none / 0)

Rule #1: Scorn or snark about the OTHER candidate

I might well be able to go for Obama later than 2102...

That is definitely snark! Troll rated.


by batgirl71 on Sat May 24, 2008 at 04:55:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

No, that was a typo (none / 0)


by lombard on Sat May 24, 2008 at 05:16:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: No, that was a typo (none / 0)

Tried to take off troll rating. Wouldn't work, sorry.


by batgirl71 on Sat May 24, 2008 at 05:26:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Would you do this again? (none / 0)

though i support obama over hillary (and certainly over mccain), he is far from being my ideal candidate. were he to lose (i don't think he will) i hope that someone more progressive  will move into the spotlight. i would not rule out supporting someone else in 2012 against president obama (not hillary though).

i am hopeful that pres obama will take the u.s. a bit to the left and pave the way for others to take it a bit further.


by citizendave on Sat May 24, 2008 at 02:59:17 PM EST

Re: Would you do this again? (none / 0)

One thing that's missing in your argument, I think, is quite critical: the rather surprising and heretofore unknown fact that the "factions" each candidate has attracted this election season has been of essentially identical size. I think a necessary condition of the level of bitterness we have encountered is that the battle has been so long and so even that neither candidate was knocked out early.

What's really weird about this battle has been that I don't think anyone would have identified the fault lines in the Democratic Party beforehand in the way they have come to be revealed. There are very few policy differences for people to rally around. They are entirely class/group issues. Underneath those issues, though, there's clearly a great deal of resentment and distrust and simple disdain across those lines. I think the consensus beforehand had been that it was the Republican Party more riven by class and other distinctions, with the moneyed class and the social conservative/religious  working class eyeing each other very suspiciously.

The problem is, now that these fissures have come out into relief in the Democratic Party, I don't see how they really go away easily. My guess is that future Democratic candidates will have to try to win by playing off one group against the other, working off by then pre-existing and well known themes to appeal more to one side than the other.

Given that the underlying bases are of such equal size, that might portend more battles of similar ugliness.

Perhaps what will make the difference is if one side or the other has their candidate win, and that candidate fares very poorly in the election. It's very hard for a wing of a Party to maintain any clout or credibility after they have been deeply embarrassed in an election.


by frankly0 on Sat May 24, 2008 at 03:10:45 PM EST

Re: Would you do this again? (none / 0)

If you want to understand what's happening in the Democratic Party, go here. Essentially, the Party is moving from a New Deal era bread-and-butter ideology to more of a post-materialist (idealist) outlook. With the exception of low-income African Americans, Obama's coalition is thoroughly post-materialist. This is why Clinton supporters view Obama as lacking substance -- Obama has substance, but he doesn't spend the majority of his time describing how he's going to help each and every demographic economically. Instead, Obama talks about values with specific emphasis on foreign policy, environmentalism, Constitutionality, etc.


by RP McMurphy on Sat May 24, 2008 at 03:30:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Would you do this again? (none / 0)

Well, of course, what's pretty absurd about the claim that Obama is somehow going beyond economics with his constituency whereas Hillary, presumably, isn't, is that among the most important factors telling against Obama among Hillary's supporters is that he's so out of touch with their non-materialistic values: on guns, religion, social values, etc.

You can make up all the categories and distinctions you want, but if they just don't add up, they ain't going to do nothin' for you.


by frankly0 on Sat May 24, 2008 at 05:46:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Would you do this again? (none / 0)

If Obama loses he won't be back and neither will Hillary. The Democratic Party is not kind to its "losers".

I think in this scenario Mark Warner would be a strong frontrunner for 2012, Evan Bayh would most definatley run as well


by rossinatl on Sat May 24, 2008 at 03:24:35 PM EST

Re: Would you do this again? (none / 0)

MY candidate, of the two who remain, was my fourth choice (counting Al Gore), so of course I'd consider other candidates.

The candidate who came very close to being my fourth choice has dropped from a close fifth to "no fucking way, not ever".


by BlueinColorado on Sat May 24, 2008 at 03:26:12 PM EST

You were asked not to scorn the OTHER candidate (none / 0)

Please try to develop some self-control here.


by lombard on Sat May 24, 2008 at 03:27:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Would you do this again? (none / 0)

I disagree.  How might the Democratic party avoid a similar battle in the future?  Simple.  Another candidate will declare, he or she won't start out with these factions hating him or her, and that candidate will win, and quickly, simply by virtue of being a third choice who is acceptable to most people.

If Edwards had had some ability to jump back into the race, say, around the time of the Ohio/Texas primaries, and wasn't hobbled by his having failed to collect delegates before, I think it's possible he could have turned himself into the front runner by now.

A candidate in 2012, essentially, would be able to do just that.  And his name, I'll bet, is Mark Warner (though the Dems would have to lose this cycle).


by IncognitoErgoSum on Sat May 24, 2008 at 03:45:53 PM EST

So, I take it your answer is a qualified no. (none / 0)

You wouldn't be very likely to support either of these candidates again and would prefer a less potentially fractious third choice.  Am I correct?


by lombard on Sat May 24, 2008 at 03:59:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I don't (1.00 / 2)

think either Democrat loses in 2008.  

I just cannot imagine any person who calls themself a Dem voting for that puke, John McCain.  I started out a supporter of someone else, and have not jumped onto the Clinton or Obama bandwagon because I think their policies are pretty much the same with some small exceptions.  There are things I like about both, and things I dislike about both, but it matters not to me, because I'll vote for either one in November.

I plan on voting for the incumbent Democratic President in 4 years :) because once a victor is declared I will happily work to get out the vote, phonebank and donate to that person.

McCain is so stupid he probably thinks a 401k is new kind of assault rifle. He's a phony, lying, foul mouthed, flipflopping, adulterous, do nothing, warmongering, woman hating piece of garbage who will do or say anything to be elected. People can see through him, and anyone who is stupid enough to vote for him needs to have their head examined. So..the next freaking person I hear (Clinton or Obama supporter) say, 'I'm voting McCain' if their candidate loses needs to be humiliated until they never show up here again.


by Kyrial on Sat May 24, 2008 at 04:49:08 PM EST

Troll rated for violation of the intent of diary (none / 0)

I don't want trash language in my diary and I want people to stick to the question and rules.  I expressly told people to skip this one if you can't stay within the rules.


by lombard on Sat May 24, 2008 at 05:22:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Would you do this again? (1.50 / 2)

I must respectfully disagree with the assertion that Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama (as CEO's and owners of their campaigns) are equally culpable in this downward spiral / war of words and complete degradation of the character of the other. Diaries here and elsewhere (and www.attacktimeline.com for those with an open mind) point to direct and purpose ful attacks of disinformation and character (best but not only example: "she'll do or say anything to win") coming from the Obama campaign as far back as summer 2007. I saw it for myself in the lies and disinformation about Clinton's position on NAFTA and HealthCare that PAPERED Ohio in February thanks to the SEIU. Clinton ran a positive campaign way past the time when she should have started fighting back - describing her strengths and capabilities, speaking about the importance and opportunity of Democrats winning the White House in 2008, and attacking the current administration. It was only in light of the primary defeats in January and February that it became clear that she had no choice but to fight back. When she chose to fight back, one could say it was nasty - but heh - John Kerry was criticized for not fighting back! My final observation is that there is a difference between a negative attack and TELLING THE TRUTH - ah but you've probably not even read this far.


by pan230oh on Sat May 24, 2008 at 05:15:42 PM EST

Troll rated for violation orfRule #1 (none / 0)

This diary is not for criticizing either opposing candidate.  This diary is for speculating if you would or would not back YOU candidate in the future.


by lombard on Sat May 24, 2008 at 05:20:06 PM EST

Re: Would you do this again? (none / 0)

I can imagine circumstances developing over the next 4 years that would end with me voting for either candidate. I can't, though, imagine not at least considering other candidates.

As painful and nearly intolerable has been this seasons debates regarding gender & race, I think it's an invaluable service to the country to be having this discussion=as compared to past primaries.

I cannot imagine what the primaries will look like in 4 or 8 years, & I wouldn't have predicted this season 4 years ago.


McCainuire, The Wrath Of Not Enough Naps.
by catilinus on Sat May 24, 2008 at 05:35:38 PM EST

Re: Would you do this again? (2.00 / 2)

At the moment, there are a small and dwindling number of Democrats I am loyal to--good people I trust to lead us and who I feel share my view of the Democratic Party and what its purpose is.

Al Gore.
Hillary Clinton.
John Lewis.

That might be it, actually. There are a few others who are close. My feelings might change, but I'll support either of them if they run for anything again, whether it's President or Beaver County Board of Supervisors. I'm not going to let the antipathy of other people stop me from supporting the leaders I believe in.


by OrangeFur on Sat May 24, 2008 at 08:29:51 PM EST

hey lombard (2.00 / 1)

nice job in keeping the threads on topic. some folks don't like playing the hypothetical game, but it lead to some interesting declarations (and didn't drive to insult anybody). so i'm calling off the duel.


by citizendave on Sat May 24, 2008 at 09:07:31 PM EST

Thanks, citizendave! (none / 0)


by lombard on Sun May 25, 2008 at 02:33:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Would you do this again? (1.00 / 3)

Yes, I would definitely support Hillary Clinton again for President.  

Regarding Obama, remember, Michelle herself said during an interview; "You only get one shot at us." in reference to Barack making another run for President -- as in this year, now or never.


by cameoanne on Sun May 25, 2008 at 02:24:40 AM EST

Re: Would you do this again? (2.00 / 2)

What's with the hide rating, Lt. Worf?


No Way. No How. No McCain.
by Denny Crane on Sun May 25, 2008 at 09:59:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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